Development of an ovarian cancer screening decision model that incorporates disease heterogeneity: implications for potential mortality reduction.

Abstract

BACKGROUND: Pathologic and genetic data suggest that epithelial ovarian cancer may consist of indolent and aggressive phenotypes. The objective of the current study was to estimate the impact of a 2-phenotype paradigm of epithelial ovarian cancer on the mortality reduction achievable using available screening technologies.
CONCLUSIONS: The current analysis suggested that reductions in ovarian cancer mortality using available screening technologies on an annual basis are likely to be modest. A model that incorporated 2 clinical phenotypes of ovarian carcinoma into its natural history predicted an even smaller potential reduction in mortality because of the more frequent diagnosis of indolent cancers at early stages.