Don’t play with numbers - Editorial

Editorial - open access
  
This editorial looks at how to present statistical information in a way that is easy for readers to interpret and apply, and calls on everyone involved writing educational material and press releases to make a conscious effort to use the most effective statistical formats.

"Seven simple lifestyle ‘steps’ can cut your risk of getting cancer by 51%. This carefully crafted message, recently publicised by the American Heart Association, was guaranteed to receive enormous media attention because of its simplicity coupled with the promise of halving the risk of contracting a highly feared disease. It is perhaps a good example of linking causes to promote healthier lifestyles. How far it helped anyone understand their own particular risks of getting cancer and how best to manage them, however, is more debatable.

Most of us, when we hear that something halves our risk, tend to think we have understood something meaningful. But if we have little idea about what level of risk we currently face – as is generally the case – then being told that our risk will halve is in practical terms meaningless. Am I halving my risk of ever getting this cancer from 2 in 100,000 to 1 in 100,000? In which case it may make sense to keep the lifestyle and accept the higher risk. Or do I have a 2 in 10 chance of getting that cancer within the next five years, in which case halving that risk to 1 in 10 might be worth some fairly major changes in lifestyle.........  

".........Cancer has always suffered from disinformation and sensationalist claims and scares. The only way to counter this is through consistent and accurate information that is presented in a way that people can easily make sense of. This should become a standard for all educational literature that communicates risks about different aspects of cancer. It should also apply to press releases, so that news about cancer prevention, screening and treatment communicated by the mass media will be genuinely informative and less likely to lead to inaccurate beliefs about the potential of any intervention"